Good Tuesday afternoon everyone! Few things as we get started:

  1. Now that the low pressures are beginning to merge, our storm track is pretty locked in place. As a result, forecast confidence is finally much higher.
  2. We’re still expecting a healthy, impactful snow for the Region. We have a general feeling that people have let their guard down with the thinking this storm has missed us. There’s still a storm–it’s just shifted slightly east (and not as all since this morning). We’ll have impacted travel beginning tonight-Wednesday night.

BIG PICTURE:

Here’s what the evolution will look like through Thursday:

tuestorm

OUR FORECAST:

As we’ve chatted about with some of you this morning on our Facebook Page we’re STILL expecting a decent snowfall across the entire region. We’re expecting a widespread 3-6 inches with isolated amounts up to 8 inches are expected this evening through Thursday.

The models have shifted the track of the low east over the last 2 days–to the point that Wisconsin and northern Illinois were in the bulls-eye Sunday and now it’s north-central Indiana through Michigan! While a shift in the track is typical–this was one of the larger shifts I’ve seen in my career–and the reason why we always caution that forecasts can change days in advance.

I also can’t say enough, it’s about the IMPACTS from winter storms. One inch of snow with hurricane-force winds can be just as impactful as a foot of snow with little to no wind. We (meteorologists included) get so caught up in the exact number of inches when we should focus more on HOW it affects you in terms of impacts. That absolutely does not let us off the hook for an accurate forecast, but it should shift the attention to what the important takeaways should be from winter storm forecasting.

ACCUMULATIONS:

Widespread 3-6 inches, isolated totals up to 8 inches.

TIMING:

This afternoon-Thursday morning

IMPACTS:

Not expecting anything in terms of impacts this afternoon. Conditions will begin to deteriorate this evening into tonight. We’re expecting the highest impacts from snowfall and wind to occur overnight through the day Wednesday before snow gradually winds down later Wednesday. We’ll have to watch for some additional lake effect snow Wednesday night and Thursday.

LATEST MODELS:

EURO

tueeuro

GFS

tuegfs

GEM

tuegem

NWS

tuenws

NAM

tuenam

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