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If you’re amongst the crowd that has been enjoying the mild temps this past week, you’re not alone. November started on the cool side with below average temps for much of the month. 15 out of our first 22 days were at, or below average in the temperature department. We’ve flipped a switch, however, and we’ll continue on the warm side of things (generally) through early December.

Picture below: Todays warm up pushed temps some 10-15 degrees above their average for this time of year. All the cold air is bottled up in Canada.

WinterArrives1

We’ll see a few brief hits of colder air over the next two weeks, but no long-lasting, snow-driven cold blasts. That’s good news for non-snow lovers.

Picture below: Another potential warm up early next week with cold air collecting in western Canada. We’re still nice and mild for December!

WinterArrives2

The models are hinting at a pattern flip somewhere in the December 7th-10th range with a jetstream that ties into that cold air and brings it into the eastern US. Look at the beginning of the intrusion:

WinterArrives3

Beyond that–models are hinting at some prolonged cold air anywhere from December 7th-December 15th. Details obviously need to be ironed out at this point as it could all change–but we had good indications that we’d be warm this week and next–so I tend to agree with a mid December cold snap:

Will we turn snowy during that stretch? All depends on what systems form and where. Lake effect snow would be likely, but depending on the fetch, it may miss us in NWI. Models paint the beginning of a snowy picture through mid December:

IN SUMMARY:

We’ll remain on the mild side through the first week of December before the pattern potentially shifts to a colder one the second week of December. Still too early to tell if we’ll see snow, but it looks to be cold enough!

Until then, enjoy this mild air. We’ll likely want to remember this come the middle of winter!

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