Wow! What a stretch of beautiful weather to begin the month of December! We’re on borrowed time here in NW Indiana as Mother Nature is about to flip a big switch. Let’s take a closer look at what we can expect.

Our main storm system responsible for driving this big pattern change will move through Monday with rain and perhaps a thunderstorm.

Colder air filters in Tuesday behind the front. While this air will be cold, we’ll see several reinforcing shots of even colder air arrive later in the week through early next week. These will be the real deal in terms of delivering the cold air!

We know it’s going to get much colder around here. We’ve been advertising that for the last two weeks here at Region Weather (November 27th Post) but what about snow?

Right now, snow is hard to find in the eastern US:Our initial storm won’t put down much, if any snow as it moves through. The cold air will arrive after the bulk of the moisture moves east. Lake effect will likely develop but isn’t favorable for NWI. The Euro model keeps most of the lake effect snow in Michigan through early next week as the flow looks to be out of the west, northwest. We’ll have to keep our eye on La Porte County, but a heavy snow event looks unlikely with the Euro’s solution. Keep in mind, the Euro isn’t the best at forecasting snowfall beyond 3-4 days. Looking at the American model, it paints a slightly different picture.

It suggests a secondary front moves through late week, which is likely, but it brings an area of snow with it right over NWI. It also kicks off some lake effect in the Region as well. Timeline would be Thursday-Saturday. Not sure if I agree with this solution yet, but it’s worth watching. Several inches would be likely if this were to verify:This pattern has some staying power–we look to remain in the 20s and 30s for highs well into December! This bodes well for our white Christmas chances although the few days leading up to Christmas are still out of sight on most models. Here’s our warm up Monday (I think we’ll easily reach into the 60s)We turn colder behind the main front, but not REAL cold:Beyond Tuesday, a series of cold fronts will continue to pass through every couple of days–bringing the core of the arctic air ever so close to our area. Here’s next Saturday:And next Monday:Summary:

A strong cold front will bring rain and perhaps a storm to the Region Monday. Colder air behind the front will be with us Tuesday, but there won’t be much snow tied to this system. We’ll have to keep our eye on a potential system late week that may bring an accumulating snow to NWI.

Lake effect will be on-going in Michigan, and any wobble in snowbands will need to be watched as well! As of now, it looks like the main story will be the cold for us!

Will continue to pass along updates!