[This is our MONDAY EVENING update. Please check the homepage at regionweather.com for the very latest forecast information]
THE BIG PICTURE
Our rain has arrived with the first wave of low pressure and will continue through the overnight before turning to just scattered showers during the morning and midday hours Tuesday. Our first wave of moisture will stall out as another low pressure moves in and cranks this whole storm system up.
At the same time, colder air will begin to pull into the entire system changing our rain over to snow. We’ll likely just see areas of drizzle and a few scattered showers early Tuesday before an area of snow is expected to develop and expand over the Region during the day Tuesday leading into Tuesday evening.
Snow will likely continue through Tuesday night into the day Wednesday as our second, stronger area of low pressure heads northeast through the Ohio Valley. Wind will begin to ramp up Tuesday night into Wednesday as well with gusts over 35 mph possible.
ACCUMULATIONS
We’re expecting a widespread area of 5-10 inches across ALL of northwest Indiana (we tend to focus on the highest number–remember we have just an equal shot at only getting 5 inches)
WHATS CHANGED
We’ve tweaked our high-end totals downward a bit as the latest model runs have lowered our amounts and we think there is now an equal chance for Lake, Porter, La Porte, Newton, Jasper, and Starke counties to see the 5-10 inches of snow we’re forecasting as of now. Higher amounts are certainly possible, but this system is incredibly complex and we’ll stick with an impactful 5-10 inches right now.
THE MONDAY EVENING MODELS JUST FOR FUN
Our evening model run has backed off on totals, so it’s an interesting twist. We get so fixated on amounts when we should always focus on IMPACT. Whether we end up with 5, 8, or 12 inches of snow–the IMPACT will be very similar. Snow covered roads, tough travel, and disrupted plans.
Regardless, it’s fun to take a look (and we use these as guidance for forecasts obviously).
EURO:
GFS:
NAM:
NEXT UPDATE:
We’ll have another update Tuesday morning bright and early for you!
