Weekend Heavy Rain, Flood Potential


A cold front will make its way through the Region this weekend and along and ahead of it, moisture will collect making for a very rainy weekend for portions of northern Illinois and Wisconsin. We’re right on the edge of where the “rain train” will be flowing over the next 48 hours, so while we can expect waves of showers and a few storms, I think the heaviest totals and flooding issues will be just to our northwest. Let’s take a look.


This is the way the radar may behave over the weekend. Notice a “train of rain” heading up and along the cold front to our west. We see several waves of showers and a few thunderstorms today and tonight until the cold front moves through Sunday with a line of heavy rain and thunderstorms.



Here’s this morning’s model run of the Euro which paints 2-4 inches of rain through Monday morning from Iowa into northern Illinois. For us, around an inch for a good portion of the Region with lesser amounts in Newton and Jasper counties, but not by much.



The GFS shows a similar story with waves of showers producing up to a half inch of rain, mainly in Lake and Porter counties until the main band of showers and storms moves through Sunday bringing another half inch of rain. Totals would be heaviest northwest of us, but we’d average around an inch locally. gfsrain


It’s also been on the dry side the last few months, we know that. So the ground will be able to handle most, if not all of this water. In fact, it will be quite welcoming! The latest drought monitor still have a good portion of the Region in the dry category with moderate drought just south and east of the area.



Precip over the last few weeks has been below average. The brown shaded areas are anywhere from 1 to 3 inches below average over the last 30 days.



In summary, we could use the rain locally. Areas of northern Illinois, where they’ve had a surplus of rain over the last few weeks, will have flooding issues with an additional 2-4 inches possible this weekend. Our amounts will be less dramatic, but still noteworthy, but our Region soils will be able to handle it! The heaviest rain will fall Sunday with the passage of the front where a line of showers and storms will move from west to east through the area. This will set us up for a brief shot of fall-like weather next week! Stay tuned!

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