The melt has been on over the last week for much of the Region and eastern United States for that matter–and this trend will continue over the next 5-7 days as warmer air continues to stream into the eastern US. While we were at nearly 50% snow cover last week, we now have close to 30% as many a Frosty has melted. Current snow depth in the US:snownow.jpg

Historically we have anywhere from a 41% to 50% chance of a white Christmas here in NW Indiana–greatest chances in the snowbelt from La Porte County up into Michigan:

historicalwhitechristmas

While the milder pattern (few cold days mixed in) sticks with us through Dec 20th or so, I’m seeing some pattern changes in the few days leading up to Christmas! Let’s zip ahead and take a way-too-early look at Christmas Eve…

Models agree somewhat that our jetstream will be coming out of Canada bringing cold air into the eastern US–a change vs right now.

christmasevejet

This cold air and flow sets off the Great Lakes with lake effect snow:

christmaseveprecip

Unfortunately for you snow-lovers, it looks like mainly the eastern lakes for now…still too early to pin down details…but let’s keep going.

christmasevesnowdepth

The models also agree on some sort of east coast, or eastern US storm in the Dec 21st-23rd timeframe–this will likely be the storm to usher in the colder air around Christmas. Here’s what the Euro is forecasting in terms of snow depth on Christmas Eve as the result of that potential storm and lake effect snow:

christmasevesnowdepth

As you can see, we do NOT have a white Christmas at all. Let’s take a look at the GFS model:

christmasevesnowdepth2

This is a bit of a snowier look–but it only has light, if any amounts on the Region. All that being said, the details still need to be ironed out in the upcoming days–but as of now, it looks colder, but not very snowy during the days leading up to Christmas. Our early forecast for a white Christmas? 38% chance right now…

Stay tuned!

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