MONDAY AFTERNOON STORM UPDATE

Round #1 is on the way out with our soaking rain off of bigger storms well to our south. We’ll catch a break and our atmosphere needs it. There’s not a single chance for anything severe locally with the way our air is now. This break will help build some instability, but the question is–how much? Storms are firing along the actual front well to our west and it’s these storms we’ll watch to see how well they can develop. Our hi-res guidance is of little help–the HRRR blows up scary storms and rolls them through the Region this evening. Our NAM based models keep these storms nice and tame as they approach and work through. It will certainly be tough for our atmosphere to recover, but we’ll need to keep an eye on this round just in case. In the meantime, no severe weather is expected locally until this evening when round #2 approaches.