Good Thursday evening to you everyone! Our well-advertised storm system is now taking shape in the southern Plains and will make its way towards the Region tomorrow. Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms will roll in tonight out ahead of this system. I’m not expecting much of a severe threat with the overnight and morning round of rain/storms although we could have some small hail in a few storms.
By midday into early afternoon, our rain and storms will become much more scattered. A strong storm is still possible during this time, but we’ll mainly be windy and turning warmer and even more humid! Temps will surge into the 60s as we wait for the main show to develop back towards Iowa.
By mid to late afternoon, strong to severe storms will quickly fire up near the actual low pressure near Iowa. With a good amount of instability and a pretty decent amount of shear–these storms will likely turn severe and produce tornadoes in Iowa and western Illinois as they develop. It’s these storm that we will watch race (65-75mph speed) east towards the Region. The expectation is that they become a line of storms when they reach us rather than individual supercells as they will be when they first develop. That being said, damaging winds will become the primary (and likely) threat, but a few tornadoes are still possible in our environment locally. Timeframe would be anytime late afternoon into the evening.
This line will clear quickly from west to east with windy conditions continuing tomorrow night as cooler air settles in. Our severe threat will move in quickly tomorrow but will also move out quickly. We’ll have updates as you’d expect all day tomorrow and throughout the event–make sure you’re plugged in for the latest.