[This is the Monday Midday Update–make sure you check the homepage at regionweather.com for the latest information]
A complex storm system will move into the Region later today bringing a prolonged period of precipitation–starting as rain today, transitioning from rain to snow Tuesday, and ramping up with gusty winds Tuesday night through Wednesday. The models have shifted south with the low pressure (as of this update) bringing the heaviest axis of snow right through NW Indiana. Here’s the big picture view of how this evolves:
PRECIP-TYPE TIMELINE
A quick summary on how precip-types will play out:
MONDAY EVENING
Rain develops
MONDAY NIGHT
Rain likely
TUESDAY MORNING
On & off showers
TUESDAY AFTERNOON
Showers changeover to snow
TUESDAY EVENING
Snow likely
TUESDAY NIGHT
Snow likely
WEDNESDAY
Snow likely
CONFIDENCE
Remember yesterday when we mentioned NOT to look at any of the numbers because they’d change? ( In This Post ) This is why snowfall forecasts with a complex storm such as this (two low pressures merging) are inaccurate and irresponsible days in advance as we’ve seen with some of the click-bait floating around on the internet. Our mission has always been to keep it real without hype.
Confidence has obviously increased as we’re now 24-36 hours away from the event–models have converged (as we were waiting for yesterday) on a solution that brings two waves of heavier snow within the steady light snow with accumulations centered just to the northwest of that low pressure track. Now that the low is further southeast in ALL of the models, that brings the heaviest snow right through the Region. We agree with the track and impacts–now it’s just a matter of just how much snow will fall.
IMPACTS AND ACCUMULATIONS
Keeping it real: This will be an impactful storm system with likely the highest snow totals we’ve seen this season, but that doesn’t say much on it’s own. The combination of the long duration of steady snow and colder air with gusty winds Wednesday into Thursday will have impacts on its own. Once we turn to snow on Tuesday afternoon, conditions will begin to deteriorate Tuesday night through the day Wednesday.
LAKE & PORTER COUNTIES: We feel comfortable with a our forecast for 6-12 inches of snow in Lake and Porter Counties with the potential for higher amounts if lake enhancement develops as winds whip off the lake during the event. We’re cautious to go any higher until we see how the lows begin to interact and how much moisture develops as a result of the “lift” in the atmosphere once they begin merging.
NEWTON, JASPER, STARKE, & LA PORTE COUNTIES: We’ll go 5-10 inches for Newton, Jasper, Starke, and La Porte Counties with higher amounts possible in La Porte County if lake enhancement materializes.
As our weekly reminder: don’t just focus on the upper number in the range–it’s a range for a reason (6 to 12) because snow doesn’t fall evenly and some of us may end up with 5 or 6 inches while others see the higher range. This will change as newer info comes in!
Lesser amounts will fall the further south and east you are located outside of the Region. Let’s look at the totals in map form…
EURO (Which has been ON this solution since Sunday)
GFS
GEM
NAM
NEXT UPDATE
We’ll push out another comprehensive update this evening right here on regionweather.com
