No sooner than now have we put ANY numbers on our snowfall forecasts for this weekend storm system. Many of you have asked why…
Because it changes.
And it will still change.
We’re predicting gazillions of air molecules that are in a constant state of chaotic movement. And the problem is–they won’t stop moving. It’s amazing we can even predict the weather at all!
That being said, we’re getting a good idea (after combing through many many model runs) of how this storm will behave and we can finally begin to put some numbers on it that shouldn’t fluctuate as much as anything you saw online earlier this week. Let’s dive in:
An area of low pressure (and our resulting winter storm) will develop early Friday in the southern Plains. I’m expecting a band of snow to develop out ahead of it–perhaps setting up over NWI late Friday. This band of snow could put down several inches of snow out ahead of the main storm–THIS will be something we’ll be keeping a very close eye on:
By Saturday morning the main storm and northern periphery band of snow has set up–heaviest downstate towards Indianapolis–but we’ll likely settle into some steady snow from Friday night into early Saturday:
By Saturday afternoon the snow is already out of here and moving east. The storm REALLY cranks up just east of us–but we should avoid the most organized part of the storm. For us, we’ll have winds that start cranking–likely with gusts over 40mph blowing and drifting the snow that fell Friday night into Saturday morning:
We’ll go relatively snowflake-free later Saturday, but by Sunday morning, the lake effect machine looks to ramp up. VERY COLD air will begin moving in–setting off a band (or bands) of potentially heavy lake effect snow. This won’t be for everyone, but wherever the band sets up we’ll see a impactful snowfall–likely somewhere in the Region:
Don’t look now, but we have ANOTHER storm system late Monday into Tuesday that could bring more accumulating snow to the Region. Behind that? More bitter cold:
Here’s a look at the timeline visually:
What we’re thinking in terms of impacts:
Finally, here are the Thursday morning model runs in terms of snowfall amounts through Saturday morning only. This would NOT include lake effect. This will change. We’re leaning 3-6 through Saturday morning…but we’ll have to keep a close eye on that band of snow out ahead of the main storm—that could easily push totals higher WHERE it sets up.
We’ll have additional updates on our Region Weather Facebook Page found HERE