Heavy Rain Likely Tonight

We’ve seen a very active radar to our north over the last few days where this heat and humidity meets the cooler, fall-like air to the north. Flooding rains and severe weather have been common in this “battlezone” and it’s beginning to sink south and east today. This will bring a strong to severe line of heavy rain-producing storms into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois through this evening and eventually NWI overnight. Let’s look at the timing…


On-going storms in Illinois may sneak into NWI later this evening as our model suggests. I think the better chance for heavy rain will hold off until after we go to bed. Here’s what our model says for 8pm with weakening activity moving in from north central Illinois:

timing1


I agree with this possible scenario around 1am! I think we’ll have heavy rain and an ominous radar to our north into the early overnight as a strong line of storms sinks south out of Wisconsin:

timing2


That line of strong to severe storms will likely sink south into the Region through the early morning hours. A few stronger storms may produce gusty winds in addition to our main threat–the heavy rain:

timing3


Out the door tomorrow morning, we’ll likely have a few lingering showers, but the bulk of the activity should be to our southeast making for the beginning of some cooler, drier air. It’ll take awhile for it to work in–likely by Thursday 🙂

timing4


In terms of rainfall, I think the flood potential will stay northwest of the Region, but we stand a REAL good chance at some heavy rain with these as they move through overnight. 1-2 inches of rain is possible in the heavier storms–best chance will be for Lake, Porter, and La Porte counties as they’ll have the most energy when these storms move in.

  • Red=4+ inches
  • Purple= 2+ in
  • Blue= 1+ in
  • Green=.25+ in

timing5

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s