Tuesday Evening Storm Threat

A slow moving storm system is spiraling its way through the Midwest and will bring another round of showers and storms, some of which will be severe, to areas of northern Illinois and NW Indiana. Here’s whats happening:

THE SETUP:

Our morning rounds of scattered downpours will continue to exit to the east and we’ll have several dry hours but will maintain isolated downpours early this afternoon. As a large cluster of storms heads into the Ohio Valley and another down through Missouri, the skies across north central Illinois should begin to clear out for a bit helping the atmosphere to become very unstable.

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At the same time, a warm front will try to push north–although it’s having a difficult time doing so due to morning storms pushing the boundary further south. It should rebound back into the Region later this afternoon.

front

Any storms that form along that warm front will have a decent chance at becoming supercells–or storms that rotate–all due to the subtle wind direction change along the warm front. Storms rotate all the time–but given enough energy–supercells are the storms we watch closely for severe potential.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING:

Models are hinting at storm development along this warm front mainly in Illinois. There will likely be more instability and atmospheric energy to work with in north central Illinois. Given our morning rainfall now continuing into the early afternoon–I think the majority of the storms will affect the Illinois side of things. Our chances for severe storms is lower than in Illinois–some models don’t develop anything at all over NWI! It’s a situation we’ll have to watch closely though. If we get some sunshine and become unstable–any storms that develop along that warm front will need to be watched closely.

Here’s a look at what the radar may look like this afternoon. Notice the supercells that develop WEST of us in Illinois:

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In terms of energy for the atmosphere to work with, we don’t have much here now due to morning clouds and rain:

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But a little daytime heating will develop a decent amount overhead–not crazy high–but sufficient enough for storm development:

cape3

SUMMARY:

We’re likely to see a break early this afternoon before more storms develop with the severe threat really focused on northern Illinois. We’ll have to keep a close eye late this afternoon and evening on these storms to see if they make it into NWI but I’m not totally sold on our storm threat later today–think the bulk of the action will be just west of us.

Stay tuned!

 

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