It’s that time of year, when the highly coveted winter outlook is issued by your various news organizations and by NOAA. We don’t like to issue seasonal outlooks at Region Weather because of two reasons:
- They don’t actually tell us much. A 33% probability of above average temps? We get it, it’s saying it’s more probable of a warmer than average winter vs a cold, but that rarely breaks down into anything you can use day to day. It’s also tough to measure these predictions and people often forget by March. For example when we get to March you may say: Did we actually end up with a cooler than average winter? What about the week we spent at 60-70 degrees? It was countered by a blast of -10 arctic air that threw off the averages. Again, very little application to your daily life.
- Forecasting the next 7 days has its challenges. Forecasting the next 90 days? That’s why we’re not involved in long-term forecasts on that order. Yes, we can see trends, like La Nina, but if a simple blocking pattern takes shape for a week, it throws the forecast off. If a storm track heads further west for a week, it throws the forecast off.
But, we appreciate the science and all the hard work that goes into producing and trying to predict the upcoming winter. And people love to at least see what the prediction is. That is, before they forget about it 🙂
Here’s the article from NOAA about the upcoming winter:
NOAA’s winter forecast for the U.S. favors warmer, drier conditions across the southern tier of the U.S., and cooler, wetter conditions in the North, thanks in part to an ongoing La Nina. Forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center — a division of the National Weather Service — are also closely monitoring persistent drought during the winter months ahead, with more than 45% of the continental U.S. now experiencing drought.
“NOAA’s timely and accurate seasonal outlooks and short-term forecasts are the result of improved satellite observations, more detailed computer forecast modeling, and expanding supercomputing capacity,” said Neil Jacobs, Ph.D., acting NOAA administrator. “From expansive and multi-hazard winter storms to narrow but intense lake effect snow, NOAA will provide the necessary information to keep communities safe.”https://www.youtube.com/embed/Wd64xdXLccM?rel=0 Video highlights from NOAA’s 2020-2021 Winter Outlook that provide seasonal predictions for temperature, precipitation and drought. This video and related map images can also be accessed online at http://www.climate.gov/Winter2020. (NOAA Climate.gov, based on NWS CPC data)
Currently, large areas of drought extend over the western half of the U.S., with parts of the Northeast also experiencing drought and near-record low stream flows. With a La Nina climate pattern in place, southern parts of the U.S. may experience expanded and intensifying drought during the winter months ahead.
“With La Nina well established and expected to persist through the upcoming 2020 winter season, we anticipate the typical, cooler, wetter North, and warmer, drier South, as the most likely outcome of winter weather that the U.S. will experience this year,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
This U.S. Winter Outlook 2020-2021 map for temperature shows above-average temperatures are likely in the South and below-average temperatures likely in parts of the North. (NOAA Climate.gov, using NWS CPC data)
The greatest chances for warmer-than-normal conditions extend across the Southern tier of the U.S. from the Southwest, across the Gulf states and into the Southeast. More modest probabilities for warmer temperatures are forecast in the southern parts of the west coast, and from the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast. Above-average temperatures are also favored for Hawaii and western and northern Alaska.
Below-normal temperatures are favored in southern Alaska and from the northern Pacific Northwest into the Northern Plains, with equal chances for below-, near- or above-average temperatures in the remaining regions.
This 2020-2021 U.S. Winter Outlook map for precipitation shows wetter-than-average weather is most likely across the Northern Tier of the U.S. and drier-than-average weather is favored across the South. (NOAA Climate.gov, using NWS CPC data)
Wetter-than-average conditions are most likely across the northern tier of the U.S., extending from the Pacific Northwest, across the Northern Plains, Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley, as well as Hawaii and northern Alaska. The greatest chances for drier-than-average conditions are predicted in the Southwest, across Texas along the Gulf Coast, and in Florida. More modest chances for drier conditions are forecast in southern Alaska, and from California across the Rockies, Central Plains and into the Southeast. The remainder of the U.S., including the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, falls into the category of equal chances for below-, near-, or above-average precipitation.
This seasonal U.S. Drought Outlook map for November 2020 through January 2021 predicts persistent drought across much of the Western U.S. in the months ahead. (NOAA Climate.gov based on NWS CPC data)
Widespread, ongoing drought is currently in place across the western half of the continental U.S. as a result of the weak Southwest summer monsoon season and near-record-high temperatures. Drought is also present in parts of the Northeast, Ohio Valley, Hawaii and Alaska. The ongoing La Nina is expected to expand and intensify drought across the southern and central Plains, eastern Gulf Coast, and in California during the months ahead. Drought conditions are expected to improve in the northern Rockies, Northwest, New England, Alaska and Hawaii over the coming months.