You felt it–over the last 24 hours our humidity was REALLY up there as we had dewpoints in the mid and upper 70s–about as high as they go during the summer. Our instability last night was incredibly high across the entire Midwest, but there was a stout “cap” in place, or a sliver of warmer air aloft preventing clouds from rising beyond a certain point.

The cap broke this morning in eastern Iowa and western Illinois and the result? Widespread storms development with lots of lightning and heavy rain. That will be our Sunday morning and midday around the Region. Here’s the evolution:

CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-regional-midwest-comp_radar-13_45Z-20200719_map_-75-1n-10-100

Locally, our severe weather threat is on the lower end. We could see a few stronger storms this morning, but the bulk of the storms will be below severe limits but will contain very heavy rain and a pretty good lightning rate. Here’s a look at our radar as of Sunday morning as the storms are moving in:

CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-local-N_Illinois-comp_radar-13_45Z-20200719_map_-100-1n-10-100

Today’s storms will be VERY efficient rainfall producers as there is an abundance of moisture above us to wring out! Localized flooding is possible despite how dry we’ve been. These storms will likely linger for awhile as the boundary is still to our west. Once we get beyond midday into the early afternoon, most of the activity should be shifting east and strong to severe storms are likely in north central and eastern Indiana. Here’s an example of how today will go on the radar:

12Z-20200719_NAMNSTMW_prec_radar-0-16-10-100

Behind this frontal boundary is a slightly drier airmass! Our dewpoints will drop from the mid 70s (tropical!) to the mid 60s tonight into Monday (humid, but manageable). High temps will be knocked down a bit as well with 80s likely to start the week instead of 90s.

So there’s light at the end of the tunnel!

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