Hard to believe we carry a heavy rain threat less than 12 hours from now given how dry, pleasant, and downright perfect it is outside as of this Thursday night. The high pressure responsible for this current paradise will head east bringing a quick return flow out of the Gulf of Mexico–setting the stage for things to change in a hurry.
Storms will likely develop on the nose of this push of moisture to our southwest. We’ll see clouds increase through daybreak, but should stay dry until mid to late morning.
MID TO LATE MORNING:
Round one. Our first round of showers and thunderstorms will likely move in from Illinois and bring a few areas of heavy rain through the Region. Not looking for any severe storms with this batch, but it will likely be a soggy lunchtime around here.
MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON:
Our initial batch of rain will have moved out, but we could see some lingering showers and or downpours but activity should become a bit more scattered as energy refocuses to our west. The latest model trends have a large area of storms developing in Wisconsin and north-central Illinois during this time, so we’d be watching that through the afternoon if that indeed holds up.
AFTERNOON TO EVENING:
Round two. All indications are that we’ll be seeing a line of strong storms to our west move southeast towards the Region. The heaviest rain and strongest storms will likely occur northwest of us, but we could still squeak out stronger storms. The biggest threat will be heavy rain as these storms will parallel the actual cold front with training storms possible. While the highest threat appears to be in north-central Illinois, we could get into some flooding issues, mainly in our northern tier of counties (Lake, Porter, La Porte Co). Something we’ll need to watch.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY:
Our line of storms will have moved through and we’ll see scattered leftover activity and with the boundary settling to our south temporarily, we’ll likely see a period of drier weather with only a scattering of showers as the action shifts south of us.
Again, heaviest north and west of us, but with the potential for some efficient rainfall-producing storms, we’re likely to see over an inch of rain (we could use it, just not all at once). If any storms train, or redevelop over the same locations over and over, the potential is there for several inches of rain by Saturday morning.
We’ll keep you updated!