We’re still looking at a pattern-changing storm system next week that will help to kick out our rather muggy, stagnant airmass and will replace it with a breezy, less humid forecast! We’re also getting a better idea of timing and impact potential, so let’s take a look.
By late Sunday, we’ll be able to see our area of low pressure develop to our southwest. This low will track from the southwest to the northeast–because of this, it doesn’t look like it will tap into a lot of cool Canadian air–but it looks to be strong enough to bring a noticeable dose for August!
The storm will continue to strengthen as it moves in our direction. We’ll likely turn breezy on Monday with showers and storm possibilities increasing as we head through the day into the evening. We have a few questions still in regards to the exact track of the low.
- How strong will it be? Models disagree on the strength of the low. A stronger low brings the threat of severe weather and a much cooler, drier airmass behind it. A weaker low brings just rain chances with a smaller, weaker wind field.
- Where does the exact track go? Models disagree on this as well. A track south of the Region keeps us relatively rain-free with shower chances in our southern counties. A track through or north of us brings the threat for stronger storms and appreciable rainfall totals.
I’m leaning towards the solutions that bring the low further north and develop a stronger low and an increased storm threat.
Let’s put that into pictures. On Monday, I think the low will be moving through Missouri into western Illinois with showers and storms out ahead of it:
Later Monday into the early morning hours Tuesday would be our storm threat and then this system will quickly be moving out Tuesday. It will likely be breezy with falling humidity by the hour. Comfortable air should be with us Tuesday and Wednesday as the low departs!
Still lots of time to sort this one out. There are times when computer models give us good guidance with these storm systems…this is not one of those times–so we’re going with raw meteorological opinion on this one as of today! Will continue to track and update!