SNOW UPDATE: FRIDAY PM EDITION

Models are getting there, but still plenty of disagreement as expected at this range in WHERE the lake effect band sets up the longest.

WHAT WE KNOW: Rain will mix with and then changeover to wet snow Sunday with lake effect snow taking over Sunday night into Monday as a secondary area of low pressure punches south through the Great Lakes. This low will bring the cold with it as well–here at the surface and in the upper levels of the atmosphere

We also know this will set off a real decent band of lake effect snow running the length of Lake Michigan. These setups are how we get the most organized and heaviest lake effect bands, especially during the early season when the lake water is still warm.

WHAT WE DONT KNOW: Where this band sets up the longest. Once it develops, it will likely waffle all over the place from west to east bringing at least some snow to everyone in the Region, but a range from a slushy coating to over 6 inches still exists.

A lot of weather pages (again) are posting snowfall total forecasts and model output showing huge totals–while it’s possible, it’s still too soon and I’ve seen these events dial back in the past. That being said, we can say we high confidence we’ll have a good lake effect band that produces heavy snow where it persists. Timeframe would be Sunday night & Monday with a gradual transition east Monday night & Tuesday before it quickly ends.

We’ll be updating you all weekend on this first snow of the season on the way–stay tuned!