WEDNESDAY MORNING STORM UPDATE

First of all–what a forecast. I’ve seen a lot and have certainly been challenged with certain forecasts over my 15+ years of meteorology–and today is one of those challenges. I’m going almost entirely “off model” because the majority of the guidance we look at doesn’t agree on what happens today…so here’s how I think it plays out:

Our morning rain and storms associated with the warm front will continue to head outbound and eventually we’ll surge some warmer temps in here. We’ll catch a brief break the rest of the morning before a line of storms to our west moves in. This line is now outflow driven–so it’s in the weakening stage. However, our break in the action the rest of the morning will help create *some* instability which should be enough to help maintain or even redevelop the line to our west in spots. All that being said, I’m expecting storms to move back in midday into the early afternoon hours. These storms we’ll need to watch for severe potential.

Beyond that, some guidance develops another line later today–I’m not sold on that option. I feel like this line to our west this morning will be “it”. Overall, I’m not very sold on our severe threat either. It won’t take much with our atmosphere to get things going–but with the outflow driven nature of this line now–my gut says the bigger storms develop south and east of here as some guidance is actually showing.

Time will tell and we need to do the same thing we were going to do anyway–be weather aware. If we don’t have any severe weather–great! If we do, make sure you’re plugged in to a reliable source for coverage. We’ll provide that for you as needed today and will also provide updates if this is a no-go. So stay tuned!

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